FEMA National Risk Index
- Provides
- Modeled natural-hazard risk scores.
- Geography
- County-level.
- Used for
- Heat, wildfire, drought, flood, and the main risk score.
- Refresh
- Refreshed when FEMA source data changes.
Methodology
Public data.
Weird geography.
Honest receipts.
The site is allowed to be funny because the math underneath it is not random. Every ZIP report starts with public government datasets, gets matched through geography, and ends with a readable risk summary.
The pipeline
How a ZIP becomes a report.
A ZIP code is only the starting signal. We convert it into the best available public geography, connect that geography to FEMA risk and disaster history, then separately measure proximity to current EPA TRI-reporting facilities and decode their available chemical filings. The result is translated into plain English without pretending county and ZIP-area data are house-level facts.
- ZIP entered
- Census ZCTA match
- County FIPS
- FEMA risk data
- Disaster receipts
- EPA facility proximity
- Readable report
Sources
What we use right now.
OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2
- Provides
- Historical federally declared disasters.
- Geography
- County or designated-area records.
- Used for
- The Disaster Receipts section and recent disaster history.
- Refresh
- Planned monthly refresh.
US Census ZCTA-to-County Relationship
- Provides
- The geography bridge between ZIP-like areas and counties.
- Geography
- Census ZCTA and county relationship data.
- Used for
- Matching a ZIP search to the right county FIPS code.
- Refresh
- Updated when Census geography changes.
EPA Toxics Release Inventory Basic Data
- Provides
- Facilities, listed chemicals, filing type, release pathways, quantities, and EPA classification flags.
- Geography
- Facility coordinates near a Census ZCTA internal point.
- Used for
- The TRI Facility Receipts section and its chemical-level filing details.
- Refresh
- Currently uses reporting year 2024; rebuilt when EPA publishes the next annual file.
US Census ZCTA Gazetteer
- Provides
- A consistent internal point for each ZIP-like Census area.
- Geography
- Census ZCTA, not a home or parcel coordinate.
- Used for
- Measuring straight-line distance to TRI-reporting facilities.
- Refresh
- Updated when Census publishes a new Gazetteer release.
EPA receipts
Nearby filing. Chemical detail. Careful conclusion.
Distance
Facilities are ordered by straight-line distance from the Census ZCTA internal point for the searched ZIP. That point is a consistent geographic reference, not your home.
Form R
Detailed Form R filings can include reported quantities for air, water, land, and off-site transfers. Off-site means the material was transferred elsewhere for management; it was not necessarily released beside the facility.
Form A
Form A is EPA's shorter certification for an eligible lower-volume filing. Exact quantities are not published, and a Form A filing does not mean zero releases.
Hazard is not exposure
PBT, PFAS, and carcinogen labels describe the reported chemical. Exposure depends on quantity, pathway, transport, duration, distance, weather, and how contact could occur.
Scores
What 100 actually means here.
Category scores are FEMA's normalized 0-100 signals. The headline score gives FEMA's overall score 60% of the weight, the middle two hazard signals 25%, and the second-highest hazard 15%. This keeps the official overall signal dominant while checking whether elevated risk is broad.
FEMA's official overall rating also acts as a guardrail. "Pretty fucked" requires at least two hazards scoring 50 or higher, while "extremely fucked" requires at least three hazards scoring 75 or higher. Lower official FEMA ratings can cap the final tier. A higher result is a stronger public risk signal, not a guaranteed disaster or an address-level prediction.
Barely
Not nothing. Not panic.
Mildly
Worth knowing. Worth checking.
Moderately
Several receipts deserve attention.
Pretty
The receipts are getting loud.
Extremely
Broad, very-high signals. Read twice.
Limits
Where the receipts stop.
- This is not an address-level, parcel-level, or house-level report.
- ZIP codes are postal routes, not perfect risk boundaries.
- Most current data is county-level, so large counties can hide local variation.
- TRI proximity starts from a Census ZCTA internal point, not your address.
- A TRI filing is not proof of unsafe exposure or contamination.
- TRI covers listed chemicals and covered facilities, not every local pollution source.
- Form A filings do not publish exact release quantities and do not mean zero releases.
- FEMA scores are planning-model signals, not predictions about your personal future.
- This is not emergency, legal, insurance, real-estate, or financial advice.
- We are independent and not affiliated with FEMA, the Census Bureau, or any agency.
Updates
Slow data should be cached. Fast data should be live.
Disaster declarations are historical and slow-moving, so we keep them prebuilt for speed and plan a monthly refresh. EPA TRI facility and chemical filings are also preprocessed because the complete annual file changes slowly. The current receipt uses reporting year 2024. Facilities submit 2025 activity by July 1, 2026; EPA generally begins publishing preliminary facility-level data later in July and revises it through the fall.
The EPA section is requested only as a reader approaches it, so the main FEMA report can render immediately. Air quality is different: when we add it, that data should be fetched closer to real time because it changes by the hour.
Next phase
More receipts, less guessing.
The goal is to make each report more local, more current, and more useful without making the page slow. These are the next data layers we want to test.
- Live air quality and smoke signals
- EPA environmental justice indicators
- Parcel-level flood map links
- Local heat and drought trend context
- Water and contamination datasets